Global Climate Change 101

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Climate scientist Bill Gutowski, ISU professor of geological and atmospheric science, has heard it all: That, sure, the climate is changing, but it has nothing to do with humans. That meteorologists can’t accurately predict the weather more than a week ahead – so how in the world can they predict what the climate will do decades in the future? That the government is raising an alarm so it can get more money.

Gutowski knows it’s hard for people to understand the science behind the change.

“Anything science tells us can be controversial,” he says. “People believe what they want. But it’s best not to get politics involved with the science.”

Gutowski has studied the science of global climate change for more than 30 years. He teaches a 400/500-level course on global climate change at Iowa State. So he’s familiar with what science tells us about our changing planet – and what we don’t yet know.

With the help of his colleagues, Gutowski has created a presentation titled “Our changing climate: What we know, where we are heading.” He was also a lead author for the most recent report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The following information is taken from that report.

WHAT THE SCIENCE TELLS US

  • Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent emissions of greenhouse gases originating from human activity are the highest in history. Recent climate changes have had widespread impacts on human and natural systems.
  • Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and sea level has risen.
  • Anthropogenic (human-caused) greenhouse gas emissions have increased since the pre-industrial era, driven largely by economic and population growth, and are now higher than ever. This has led to atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide that are unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years. Their effects have been detected throughout the climate system and are extremely likely to have been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. In recent decades, changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans. Impacts are due to observed climate change, irrespective of its cause, indicating the sensitivity of natural and human systems to changing climate.
  • Changes in many extreme weather and climate events have been observed since about 1950. Some of these changes have been linked to human influences, including a decrease in cold temperature extremes, an increase in warm temperature extremes, an increase in extreme high sea levels, and an increase in the number of heavy precipitation events in a number of regions.
  • Continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and long-lasting changes in all components of the climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive, and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems.
  • Surface temperature is projected to rise over the 21st century under all assessed emission scenarios. It is very likely that heat waves will occur more often and last longer, and that extreme precipitation events will become more intense and more frequent in many regions. The ocean will continue to warm and acidify, and global mean sea level will rise.
  • Climate change will amplify existing risks and create new risks for natural and human ecosystems. Risks are unevenly distributed and are generally greater for disadvantaged people and communities in countries at all levels of development.
  • Limiting climate change would require substantial and sustained reduction in greenhouse emissions, which, together with adaptation, can limit climate change risks.
  • Many aspects of climate change and associated impacts will continue for centuries, even if human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases are stopped. The risks of abrupt or irreversible changes increase as the magnitude of the warming increases.

CLIMATE CHANGE IN BRIEF
Fact: Humans are increasing greenhouse gases.
Fact: This is causing more energy to accumulate in earth’s climate system.
Fact: We are changing our climate.

What has happened?
• Our planet is heating up

How do we know this?
• Global temperature is rising
• Most glaciers are melting
• Arctic Ocean ice is shrinking
• Sea level is rising
• The growing season is lengthening across North America

What does the future hold?
• Global average surface temperature will continue to increase
• Global sea level will continue to rise

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Riding the Storm Out

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Your family picnic is scheduled for 1 o’clock this afternoon, and the sky looks ominous. Will it rain? Should you cancel? Or will that weather system move to the north?

Answers to these questions are just a click away at www.weather.gov – the website for the National Weather Service.

The Johnston weather forecast office in central Iowa is one of 122 locations nationwide governed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The Johnston office provides the weather outlook for 51 of Iowa’s 99 counties, providing forecasts for winter storms, tornado watches and warnings, flood watches, and seven-day forecasts.

Six Iowa State meteorology graduates work at the Johnston office, including Ken Harding (A)(’86), meteorologist in charge.

“Most meteorologists have wanted to do this since they were little kids,” Harding says. “Some had a severe weather event in their past – a tornado or a flood. Then they’re hooked.”

Meteorologists staff the Johnston office 24 hours a day, seven days a week. They have access to Doppler weather surveillance radar equipment with a 250-mile range.

“We can look at thunderstorms, measure wind, see precipitation…it’s wonderful,” Harding says. “It’s sensitive enough to see a bumblebee at 40 miles.”

There’s pressure to be accurate, and there’s especially pressure to predict severe storms accurately in order to give people time to take cover or avoid the threat.

“You’re protecting lives,” Harding says. “We take the ‘service’ part of National Weather Service very seriously.”

Flood Forecasting

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Squaw Creek meanders quietly through Ames, Iowa, often with so little flow that you couldn’t launch a toy boat from its shores. And then there are the summers when Squaw Creek has barreled through campus, dumping as much as 14 feet of water into Hilton Coliseum and flooding the surrounding land.

Kristie Franz is working to understand how water moves over land and through stream channels to shed light on flooding. Franz is associate professor of geological and atmospheric sciences and professor in charge of Iowa State’s meteorology program. Here in Squaw Creek, Franz measures the river discharge – its rate of flow through a section of the stream channel. She’s interested in discharge because it tells a story about how water travels in a watershed. The discharge data helps her and her research team build models of this behavior.

“In this area, flooding is economically very costly,” she says. “It can shut down the city. Our modeling efforts are geared toward improving our ability to predict floods – to get people out of the way and protect buildings and businesses.”

Water has always played a big role in Franz’s life. A river was a prominent feature of her Wisconsin hometown, and the citizens hold an annual Pure Water Days Festival. Franz holds degrees in geology, hydrology and water resources, and civil engineering.She’s been on the faculty at Iowa State since 2006.

Career Corner: Time to Clean Your Office?

By Katie Lickteig, Assistant Director of Outreach & Events

When you look at your workspace right now, what do you see? Stacks of papers and magazines (from several months ago)? Empty soda bottles from the previous week? Or maybe your desk is actually free of “stuff,” but upon closer inspection you notice a layer of dust coating everything and files so thick you can barely close your filing cabinet drawer?

In our office, we have scheduled a few half days devoted to cleaning out our files during the summer. As a staff, we know it’s too easy to get sucked into your inbox or start your next project if the person in the office next to you isn’t sorting through their files as well.

The next time you think you might need to go through your files or clean your office, just do it. There will always be an excuse to not do it, but you’ll feel a lot more productive, organized, and energized after it’s done. And you’ll probably end up with some extra space that you can use to start collecting more files!